The presidential compaign 2016 in the USA continues to be of great interest for many poilitical analysts outside of the USA as a majority of them expect quite different foreign and economic course of the 45th President of that country, that will have a profound influence on the whole world, depending on who will be elected in November, 2016 – Mr. Donald Tramp or Mrs. Hillary Clinton. Russia and China are the two key countries that may expect changes for better or for worse after the election. Though changes “for the better” are very unlikely for China if Mr. Trump becomes the 45th President of the USA.

As to Russia we may only hope for a very tough dialog with America under Mr. Trump which is still better than almost inevitable wars on the borders of Russia, if not a war with Russia itself, if  the “Lybian victor” Mrs. Clinton wins the elections. God, save from that !

Though some Russian observers do not exclude the possibility that Mr. Trump will be no better than Mrs. Clinton for Russia with the only difference that it may take him about a year to adapt a tough anti-Russian line wheras Mrs. Clinton may just restart her “active policy, Libyan style” without any delay, which again is in favour for the opinion in Russia that even if Mr.Trump is, “no better” than Madame, but she is, no doubt, the worst American choice for us… Welcome late 90-s of Bill Clinton yet without ” his good friend Boris”  in the Kremlin.

After several recent hawkish statements of Mr. Trump regarding Russia even a moderate Russian ” Trampomania” that was there in early spring 2016 has began to subside as even the majority of ordinary citizen began to realize that American policy towards Russia will be essentially hostile for a very long period of time , irrespective of who is the President of the USA.

Still the latest poll taken on the 7th of June, shows that more Russian citizen are in favour of Mr. Trump victory over Madame not because he is “good” but Madame, in the opinion of the majority of those polled, is definitly much worse. Humanitarian bombardments of Yugoslavia in 1999 under President Bill Clinton and the aggressive war against Libya that destroyed the country under the State Secretary Hillary Clinton  are not forgotten in Russia.

According to the “Public Opinion” Fund, Russians, in general, do not have a clear answer to the question, what is the result of the presidential election in the US that would better serve the interests of the Russian Federation.

In response to a question of sociologists 37% of Russians were undecided, while 26% said that the outcome of the American elections does not matter for Russia. Such a position, they explained that “whoever wins the election, the US attitude toward Russia will not improve” (6%), and some polled citizens noted that “it is a matter for the Americans and does not concern us” (5%).

At the same time part of the Russians believe that the victory of Mr. Donald Trump (28%) is more “important” for the Russian Federation, than the victory of Hillary Clinton (9%), according to a nationwide telephone survey conducted May 28-29 among 1,000 respondents.

Explaining their views, the survey participants said that Trump has “a better attitude to Russia and relations between our countries can be improved” (14%) and that “the democratic rival of Mr. Trump poorly refers to Russia, she is aggressive, causing antipathy” (6%).

Overall Trump makes a positive impression on 22% of Russians, and Clinton – only 8%. The negative attitude towards the both expressed 23% and 46%, respectively. That proves that the negative criteria are the main ones and Madame is regarded as a more negative person by exactly two times more Russians as compared with Mr. Trump. As usual, Russians have to “choose between two evils” even in this case when the choice actually will be done by American electorate and by the part of the establishment of the USA.

As to Madam recent statement how Mr. Trump potential victory will be regarded “in the Kremlin” ( she said on the 3rd of June that “Kremlin will celebrate if Mr.Trump wins”), one may assert that she is totally wrong. WHAT “Kremlin” did she mean ?

That one of President Putin ? There is no evidence that after hawkish statments of Mr. Trump President Putin has any illusions about the bright future of relations between the USA and Russia. Though he definitly does not want Madame to be in the White House.

Yet there are “two Kremlins” – one of President Putin and the other belongs to so called “liberals” that infested all posts in the so called “economic block” and they have been holding important economic posts since the times of President Bill Clinton. They surround President Putin from all sides and the catastrophic economic policy they have been conducting since 2012 has the clear, for many observers, final aim to remove President Putin from his present post, this way or another.
I think that President Putin understands who surround him all these years. But it is quite dangerous to remove from the Russian Covernment this pro-American powerful lobby  without consent of the American President, given the present set up in Obama’s Administration and even more in the well entrenched part of the political establishment representing global financial interests and represented by Mrs. Clinton. Or, may be by the Clintons even if Bill is in the shadow now.

The sweet couple is no friend even for President Obama, let alone Mr. Trump.

   Therefore, if Mr.Trump wins he will not be too happy to work with the proteges of Bill and Hillary Clinton in Russia and may even himself offer  to President Putin to “refresh” the government team that has not changed much for more than 20 years.
So for “the second Kremlin” the victory of Mr. Trump is not the case “to celebrate”, as Madam said on the 3rd of June, but it is the reason to mourn Madame and pack their suitcases.

In my view Madame underestimates the intentions of ” very serious people” in American establishment also to ” refresh” the Administration ( and may be even Democratic and Republican Parties teams), and to replace the Clintons with a new person who will be more politically dependant on them in comparison with very experienced and very well entrenched the Clintons and “the vested interests” they represent. There is a need for the new President who may have guts and who dares to make unusual but necessary steps in America itself whereas President Hillary Clinton means the continuation of the present piolicy. Which could be disastrous for America as the emission of US Dollars was stopped in 2014 and the old policy will just do not work in future.

It seems that a powerful part of the American establishment has decided to put a bet on Mr. Trump. Otherwise it is difficult to explain his victory within Republican Party almost three months before the July Party Convention. If it is so than it is easier to understand why  Republican candidates, all of them, have withdrown from further participation in the primaries when Mr. Trump had  only 2 votes more than necessary for his nomination ar the Convention while Mr. Berny Sanders continued his fight against Mrs. Clinton even lagging far behind her. That seems not a hopeless fight for him but a fight AGAINST Madam. With good financial support for “Jewish socialist” Berny which is not a usual phenomenon in the USA.

Besides it may expain why did Vice President Joe Biden and quite popular Bloomberg refuse to participate in the primaries and Presidential election as such ? Both are more popular with the electorate than Mrs. Clinton and still… Though we do not know about the future moves of Joe Biden before the Convention finally approves Mrs. Clinton candidacy. Though today he pays a lip service to support Madam but chances of Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton for the November victory  already got even today and if before the Convention it becomes evident that Madam definitly looses the election than we may expect surprises… The presidential compaign is full of surprises in 2016. Why not some more of them ?

And finally…. In my view, President Obama after 2014 already conducts a policy which is in a number of cases closer to the “programe” proclaimed by Mr. Trump if compared with the line which wants to lead his “Party comrade” Mrs. Clinton.
But it is the subject for the next article.

Sergey V. Stroev / Сергей Всеволодович Строев

7th June, 2016